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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."